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By Kristin Myers, Editor-in-Chief

What's Happening Today

Good morning! It's Kristin with your daily morning digest.

This week is an important one for investors, borrowers, and consumers as the Federal Reserve makes an important decision on Wednesday regarding interest rates. With inflation rising to a fresh 40-year high in February, the central bank is expected to hike interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, even as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to affect the American economy.

Hiking interest rates will help lower inflation, but will also make borrowing money more expensive. That means you'll likely see higher interest rates on mortgages, car loans, credit cards, and more.

The S&P 500 and the Dow are on the rise today as oil prices continue to decline after Brent crude spiked last week to more than $130 a barrel. This should be a welcome relief to drivers who have been getting pinched at the pump. Gas prices today are holding steady, after rising over the past month to more than $4 a gallon.

And millions of people living in the city of Shenzhen, China, are reportedly under lockdown today because of a surge in COVID-19 cases. The city is a manufacturing hub for tech companies like Apple. With the city locked down, it's possible that people in the U.S. will see prices increase for some goods because of strained supply chains as employees are unable to go to work.

- Kristin

Editors' Picks

Here's a Breakdown of How the Fed's Expected Rate Hike Will Impact Your Wallet (CNBC)

China's Shenzhen Lockdown of 17.5M Closes Apple Factory, Risks Supply Chain (Fortune)

After Skyrocketing, Gas Prices Level Off (The Balance)

Why Your Electric Bill Is Soaring—And Likely To Go Higher (The Wall Street Journal)

Can a Small Business Invest in Stocks? (The Balance)

Is Phone Insurance Worth It? (The Balance)

How To Calculate Your Modified Adjusted Gross Income (The Balance)

Off the Charts

The average 30-year mortgage rate broke 4.5% last week, the highest since 2020. The average rate offered to homebuyers using a conventional 30-year fixed mortgage rose to 4.51% from 4.47%, while the average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage inched up to 3.59% from 3.58%. Both are at their highest points since 2020, when the 30-year got as high as 4.71% and the 15-year reached 3.99%.

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Number of the Day

20%-35% - That's the chance the U.S. economy will go into a recession within the next year because of the war in the Ukraine, Goldman Sachs economists said.