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By Kristin Myers, Editor-in-Chief

What's Happening Today

Some of the latest economic data like Friday's strong jobs report helped many Americans breathe a sigh of relief that, perhaps, a recession isn't inevitable. But survey results released this morning by the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) suggest small business owners aren't feeling as optimistic.

Owners' optimism for future business conditions fell to its lowest level since the survey began 48 years ago, according to the NFIB. A growing number of business owners pointed to inflation as their number one issue. Thirty-four percent said it was their top problem, the most since the end of 1980 when the annual rate of inflation hit 13.5%. In addition to inflation troubles, business owners said they were dealing with supply chain disruptions and worker shortages.

If you're not a small business owner, you might be wondering why this is important. Think shopping. Whenever you make a purchase online or in person, expect price hikes, delayed deliveries, or longer shipping times. But that's not all. Some of the conditions small business owners are seeing could be leading indicators of what's to come, which means that despite better-than-expected economic data, a recession (or at least an economic downturn) could be in our future after all.

Earnings season could confirm—or even refute—what small business owners are telling us as corporations report on how well they did in the second quarter of the year and their expectations for the future. Stocks are mixed as companies share their quarterly results.

- Kristin

Editors' Picks

Housing Could Provide More Fuel for Inflation - WSJ (The Wall Street Journal)

Relief Eludes Many Renters as Fed Raises Interest Rates (The New York Times)

Online US Inflation Slowed in June but Food Prices Hit New High (Bloomberg)

Manufacturers Push Back on Reconciliation, Urge Passage of China Bill (The Hill)

Do You Need Car Insurance in Extenuating Circumstances? (The Balance)

Amazon Prime Day 1: The Best Prime Day Deals for 2022 (The Balance)

Handling Inheritance Issues With Siblings (The Balance)

Term of the Day

Small Business

Small businesses are companies that employ fewer than 500 employees, depending on the industry, according to the Small Business Administration. The federal government has specific definitions for small businesses in different industries.

Small businesses are critical to U.S. economic growth. They're estimated to contribute roughly 65% of all new private-sector jobs, and without small businesses, the economy won't grow.

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Off the Charts

Amid growing concerns about record inflation in Europe, the euro is reaching parity with the U.S. dollar for the first time in 20 years, and as the value of the dollar gets stronger against the euro and other major currencies, the U.S. Dollar Index hit its highest level since 2002 this morning.

Over half the index's value is represented by the dollar's value measured against the euro. The other five currencies included in the index calculations are the Japanese yen, the British pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish krona, and the Swiss franc.

There are a number of reasons for this shift. As the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to tackle surging inflation and economic concerns grow in other major markets like Europe, demand for the dollar rises as investors abroad rush to take advantage of the yields of dollar-denominated investments.

A stronger dollar can make imported products such as foreign cars and electronics more affordable for U.S. consumers. However, it can negatively impact U.S. exports and businesses that sell goods abroad, because they'll cost more for international buyers.