Great GDP Expectations

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What's Happening Today

Good morning! It's Kristin with your daily morning digest.

Some good news: The U.S. economy is growing more rapidly than expected, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth jumping to an annualized rate of 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2021 from 2.3% in the third quarter, according to an advance estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released this morning. Real GDP increased 5.7% for the full year, the highest annual rate since 1984.

GDP measures the total value of goods and services produced by the country, and that faster pace in the fourth quarter is significantly better than economists anticipated, as we recover from a pandemic that has impacted global supply chains, increased costs for most Americans thanks to rising inflation, and exacerbated hiring troubles for companies.

After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its two-day meeting on monetary policy yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that rate hikes could start in March, and said there's still "quite a bit of room to raise interest rates" before it would hurt American jobs and the economy. The Dow and S&P 500 turned sharply, closing lower yesterday after the announcement, giving up gains earlier in the session, though they're rising this morning following the release of the upbeat GDP numbers. Even so, some economists believe first-quarter GDP growth could be lower amid the fallout from the omicron variant of COVID-19.

- Kristin

Editors' Picks

Economic Growth Beats Forecasts, Jobless Claims Drop (The Balance)

Fed Signals Rate Hikes Could Start in March (The Balance)

U.S. Pending Home Sales Fall for Second Straight Month in December (Reuters)

Sign-Ups in Affordable Care Act Marketplaces Reach Record 14.5 Million (The Washington Post)

Off the Charts

There's no getting around it: inflation has made food much more expensive lately. And in some parts of the country, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits are more than enough to buy nutritious (albeit spartan) meals, while in others, they fall short, according to the Urban Institute think tank.

Number of the Day

4 - That's how few of the last 13 years the Fed's benchmark interest rate hasn't been virtually zero—a stark reminder of how different borrowing costs may soon feel.

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